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喬治·索羅斯(George Soros)，1930年8月12日生于匈牙利布達佩斯，猶太人。本名是捷爾吉·施瓦茨(Gyoumlrgy Schwartz)，匈牙利出生的美國籍猶太裔商人，著名的慈善家，貨幣投機家，股票投資者和政治行動主義分子。下面分享了索羅斯達沃斯接受彭博采訪全文，供你閱讀。
20xx索羅斯達沃斯接受彭博采訪全文
George Soros: Well, it's one of the -- basically, the key issue is deflation. Now, you don't -- it's a condition that we are not used to. None of us have lived in a deflationary environment. The last time we had that is in the 1930s. And the -- while I was around, I was not yet engaged in the markets.
So we just don't know how to handle it. It's a different environment. But now, we have to fix it.
LACQUA: On China, do you expect, actually, a -- a hard landing?
George Soros: Well, it's -- it has happened. We -- I'm merely -- I'm not expecting it, I'm just observing it. But China can manage it. It's got -- it's got resources. It has a greater latitude in using policies than most other countries because it has over $3 trillion of reserves and so on.
However, they have a way of inflicting their problem, passing it on to the rest of the world.
So they can -- they can handle it, even if they don't get the position right. They can certainly continue for two or three years on the wrong course.
But the effect on the rest of the world -- and that is actually mainly deflation. It's a source -- it's one of the sources of deflation. You've got basically three major root causes. One is China. The other one is oil and raw material prices. And the third is competitive devaluation or beggar thy neighbor policies. And you have all three.
LACQUA: How difficult is it for central banks to fight deflation? We're at zero band, almost. Is there any ammunition left?
George Soros: Well, it's -- it's difficult because whether you have minus 20 basis points or minus 30 basis points is not going to stimulate the economy. Quantitative easing has worked. It has saved the world from the deflation, the great depression. That's the lesson we have learned from the 1930s. It's Ben Bernanke who learned it. He knew it. And when he realized that he underestimated the magnitude of the problem, he used his knowledge and he engaged in a two-pronged, which is when you lose control of the -- of a car, right, you have to turn the wheel in the direction in which the skid is taking you. And when you have regained control, then you correct direction.
So the first step was to flood the money -- the market with money. And it's a long-term maneuver. The Fed was being (INAUDIBLE) was the first one to reach the point where it wanted to correct the second curve and reached it last year and started talking about it.
But they didn't act.
And by the time they act -- that they acted, the window of opportunity closed. So they acted at the wrong time. One year too late, by raising interest rates when the European economy is already -- not the European, the U.S. economy is already slowing down.
And that's because of deflation, because -- and that was the -- it really became apparent in December when you had the benefit of lower oil prices, which is -- which gave you effectively a tax cut, but the households, instead of spending the extra money, saved it to -- used it to improve their own finances because they felt they could buy the same goods cheaper next year.
LACQUA: If you're saying that the Fed hike in December is a mistake, so the Fed, at that moment, is telling us four rate hikes this year. The market believes two rate hikes.
Do you think that actually Janet Yellin will have to revert -- reverse and cut rates?
George Soros: Yes, well...
LACQUA: This year?
George Soros: -- it is -- I -- I would be very surprised if you had another increase in the rates. There were supposed to be four. And effectively, they were aiming at getting up to 3 percent. That would have been back to normal. It would have given them more ammunition to then -- to ease when the -- you have downward pressure.
But they can't get there.
LACQUA: But do you think she'll have to cut? And if she does cut, does...
George Soros: Who does?
LACQUA: Janet Yellin. If the Fed has to cut rates, to reverse that rate hike which you think is a mistake, what does it do to her credibility...
George Soros: No. Well, a mistake has happened and if you have to correct it, it's the right thing and not to stick to it.
But so it could happen that they cut it. But that won't be much of a stimulus. In other words, the quantitative easing works, but it has a diminishing return.
LACQUA: But how did quantitative easing actually work if deflation has to do with oil prices? I mean it's quite difficult in this environment, even if you look at Mario Draghi, he's been trying to get inflation up and it hasn't quite worked. Do we have to look through the oil price to -- to look at the pressures of deflation?
George Soros: Yes. Well, you can't look through it, because it's right there. So Draghi is going to expand the -- because he now has, apparently, that's what he said today, he has the support of the Bundesbank. And he has the evidence of the slowdown. So he will do it.
LACQUA: How would you play the markets in this kind of environment? What do you buy?
George Soros: Yes. Well, I -- I'm no longer, you know, in the markets, so I don't know the details. I'm -- I've become the -- the Eisi (ph) Berlin's hedgehog, you know, one big idea. The one big idea is deflation.
And therefore, since I don't know the market, I shorted SNPs, I shorted the raw material producing countries and Asian countries' currencies against the dollar and I went long, government -- U.S. government bonds.
LACQUA: This was at the end of last year?
George Soros: This was at...
LACQUA: And do you approved (INAUDIBLE)?
George Soros: Yes.
LACQUA: For this year? When -- when does deflation start being a concern? What will kick start inflation?
George Soros: Well, no, you -- I think this year is going to be a difficult year and the balance is at the -- is on the down side. So I think -- I don't -- you may hit a bottom, you know, I mean it's been declining rather rapidly. And, actually, it hit some kind of a bottom yesterday, because there was a give-up, there was a beginning of a panic. And it took -- it turned around. But it wasn't a classic bottom, because it didn't have the big shift. And it still ended down. Today, there is a follow-through. So you could have a bounce.
But I don't think this is a good entry point here, because you already have, let's say, normally you recover one third to two thirds of the -- of the loss. Well, you have almost recovered one third already.
So it's -- and if you have a real bottom, it's always retested. So this -- this is not a time to buy, in my opinion, but rather to -- for those who have to sell, sell.
LACQUA: Wait, because we will probably see another correction. Do you worry about the U.K. leaving the EU?
George Soros: Well, I don't know too much about -- I notice the currency made a new low. That's probably good for stimulating (INAUDIBLE). I don't know enough about that. As I said, I'm a hedgehog.
LACQUA: Talking about new lows, we also had the ruble touching a new low.
George Soros: Pardon?
LACQUA: We also had the ruble touching a new low.
George Soros: Yes. You -- yes.
LACQUA: A record low.
George Soros: Yes.
LACQUA: What's your take on Russia?
George Soros: Well...
LACQUA: How much do we understand about what President Putin wants to do next?
George Soros: Well, I think it's very clear that Russia is in a very, very weak position. It can, again, it has enough reserves that it can last a couple of years.
There's a big year for it in 20xx, when a lot of debt comes due.
So I would say that's -- they have to do something now. And, in fact, they are doing something, because they're -- their balance -- budget will drop to 6 percent and they have to cut it to 3 percent. So they want a -- an overall reduction between 5 percent and 10 percent in their -- in their budget.
And that actually violates the social compact that has made him so popular, which is basically financial stability and a steadily slowly but steadily rising standard of living.
And that, you know, is violating. And he has to do something about it.
So he, you know, he's acting from a very weak position. And that's why -- that's what makes him adventurous. That's what -- that's why he takes big risks, because he knows he needs to do something. And that's why he went into Syria, as well, hoping that it would improve his conditions.
So actually, you now have a race against time. There's a -- the impeding collapse of the Russian economy and the actually occurring collapse of the European Union. And it's a question which -- who collapses more and sooner.
And unfortunately, the EU is winning that race. And that's why I am so thrilled by (INAUDIBLE) turning around and I'm really an enthusiastic supporter, because that's what you need to do something when you are in -- you are in danger.
And it it's a U-turn for him, because he's, you know, opposed to adding to the debt. But when should you use the debt, except when you are in -- you are in danger, right?
So I am all for it.
LACQUA: What is the solution for -- on the refugee crisis in Europe?
George Soros: Well, it's, basically, you have to set a high enough target for refugees to be accepted. Let's say a million a year. And you have to make it clear that you will keep that open until those who qualify are actually accepted.
And then, you can demand that they should stay where they are and wait their turn. And that way, they won't rush, as they do now, to get here while the door is still open.
And that will reduce the flow to manageable proportions, where because now, we have past a tipping point where the influx reduces the ability -- capacity of the receiving countries to assimilate or to integrate the refugees.
So you have a panic. With -- without a common European asylum policy, there is a panic. It's like a cinema on fire without exit signs.
And that effects every -- the population, the general population, the refugees and the authorities that are in charge of maintaining law and order.
So there's a genuine panic.
And then it's everybody out for himself. I can't blame Victor Urban (ph) for trying to protect Hungary's borders under those conditions. I can blame him for refusing to participate in a common asylum policy. That is the problem. And he's not the only one.
You have now got a lot of countries opposed. But this is what you need.
And then, you then have to have a comprehensive policy that reaches beyond the borders of the European Union and you look after the refugees where they're currently situated.
And that is about to happen. We are on the -- we are doing it. There's going to be a summit on February 4th in London, co-chaired by Cameron and (INAUDIBLE)...
LACQUA: (INAUDIBLE).
George Soros: -- Maco (ph). And this will be directed at Jordan, which is a small country, 6.8 million people, with 25 percent of the population is Syrian refugees.
So there's a tremendous number. And now, the -- there are new refugees coming from Syria because the Russians are bombing the civilian population in the south of Syria and pushing them into Jordan.
So unless you did something to make the plan is now to open the common market to special economic zones, where people can -- multinationals and local and Syrian entrepreneurs can set up businesses and they have free access to a European market.
And their -- that will give employment both to the refugees and to the local population. And that should help to stabilize the situation and make it possible for them even to accommodate the newly coming refugees.
So that's a step in the right direction. And the same negotiations argon with Turkey. Turkey has now passed a law which allows 10 percent of companies to be Syrian refugees. So that will provide employment for them.
And you also have to improve the education of the children. And then they will not come, so the flow will be brought under control.
LACQUA: (INAUDIBLE).
George Soros: And that...
LACQUA: Mr. Soros, are you -- are you worried so about the political future of Angela Merkel?
Will she have to backtrack on the promises she's made to refugees because of the backlash at home?
George Soros: Yes, unfortunately, she uncharacteristically risked her political capital on this issue. She realized that the migration could tear Europe apart. She was -- unfortunately, she was right. And she wanted to stop it.
So she risked her political capital and she lost, because the -- her gesture of opening up Germany was not properly prepared. You see, you should have created this asylum policy, etc.
But actually, by doing it, she has made it possible to speak about accepting a million refugees because effectively, Germany is accepting them.
So in a way, by making that imaginative response, she made it now possible to have an asylum policy.
That's the sine quo non.
LACQUA: Will we find more of a solution in the Middle East in the next 12 months?
And -- and, again, what role does Russia have to play in this?
George Soros: Well, unfor -- as I say, the situation is not good because Putin, since he's in a race with the European Union, he wants the European Union to collapse and therefore he's generating -- he's using the refugee crisis as a -- a way of disintegrating Europe.
So the bombing is going on. So there is a -- there is a negotiations. But the bombing is still. And the Americans are trying to find out whether he's serious when he's talking about a political settlement or whether he's just playing with us.
And unfortunately, I'm afraid the latter is the case. So because of that, you can't expect a solution at the root, namely Syria.
LACQUA: Given all this, the market turmoil, China, concerns about deflation, geopolitics and also the risk of (INAUDIBLE), is there anything that would make us hopeful about the next 12 months?
George Soros: Look, I can see the building stones being placed for solving all the problems. There are six of them, the crises, with the exception of Greece.
And all you need to do is to put it somehow together, because all those con -- they are all interconnected. And you have to put it together and you have to solve one problem, which is the, to my mind, the key is this asylum policy.
So I've been very much engaged in bringing this apart -- about. We are engaged in all over Europe on this issue. This is a major -- it has always been a major issue for my foundations. You know, I was myself a stateless person, a migrant, for 15 years. But the migrants in those days were better treated. So I could study, I could get a job, I could have a travel document. You know, I had a plan to make $100,000 and then retire on the proceeds. And I could outperform that target. All this while I was a displaced person.
So unfortunately -- so now that I am a bit of a senior statesman, my loyalty is for the stateless people.
LACQUA: I'm going to take questions from the floor, so if you do have any questions, please e-mail . And whilst you do, then I already have a couple of questions.
Mr. Soros, just give us a sense of how you were talking about these problems and the refugees also bursting at the seams.
Is there a chance that actually the world economy falls into recession because of everything we've talked about just now?
George Soros: Yes. No, I mean the -- the deflation and the global slowdown makes everything worse. It's a bad background for sectoral changes. So it compounds the difficulties.
But as I say, I see the turnaround afterwards. So I see the end -- the light at the end of the tunnel, I just don't know how to get there.
LACQUA: One question which is coming in, which is greater, the amount of money you made on your deflation trade or the amount of money you gave away in 20xx?
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